Prof. Orhan Şen: No extremely cold winter expected in Türkiye
Turkish meteorologist and professor Orhan Şen has issued a long-range assessment for the 2026/27 winter season.
According to Şen, Türkiye is not expected to experience an extremely cold winter overall, with no prolonged periods of severe cold. He said this pattern could continue until late February or early March.
At the same time, total precipitation could be above normal, but a significant share of it is expected to fall as rain rather than snow.
Less snow could become a water-supply problem
The main concern is not extreme cold, but insufficient snow accumulation in the mountains.
Snowmelt in spring is an important source of water for reservoirs and agricultural irrigation. A lack of snow cover during winter could therefore increase the risk of water shortages next year.
Snow accumulation in high-altitude areas, particularly around 1,500 metres and above, is especially important.
Could Istanbul still get snow?
Snow is not being ruled out completely. Şen says Istanbul could still see a short one- or two-day snowfall event, but the more important issue for water resources is snow accumulation in the highlands of Anatolia.
What about El Niño?
Şen also links his long-range assessment to the expected strong El Niño event.
International climate agencies are also forecasting an unusually strong El Niño for the 2026/27 season. NOAA currently puts the probability of a very strong event at more than 90%.
